PlanB admitted that his worst-case scenario in terms of BTC’s price movements is about to be proven wrong for the first time. The analyst’s model forecasted a $98,000 price tag for the asset at the end of November, which seems somewhat of a long shot as of now.
PlanB’s Worst-Case Scenario
CryptoPotato has previously reported the accuracy of PlanB’s worst-case scenario (floor model), as he referred to it, which is separate from the popular stock-to-flow model. However, it was quite resilient in the past as it was spot-on for several consecutive months.
The prediction model saw bitcoin closing at $47,000 at the end of August and dropping to $43,000 at September’s end, both of which indeed transpired. October was also nearby, as BTC closed the month at $61,000, while PlanB envisioned $63,000. The anonymous analyst classified this minor difference as a “rounding error,” which was “good enough” for him.
During a recent podcast with the author of the Bitcoin Standard – Saifedean Ammous – PlanB highlighted the difference between the S2F model and his “worst-case scenario.” Instead of BTC’s production and demand, the latter is more of a technical model, based primarily on the 200-day moving average.
Wrong for the First Time?
Given the aforementioned accuracy of the model, many expected that the November prediction price of $98,000 will come to life as well. Moreover, the ongoing month is arguably the best in BTC’s history as the asset has produced some of its most impressive gains in previous years.
This November also started on a high note as in the first few weeks, the cryptocurrency skyrocketed to its latest all-time high of $69,000. However, the landscape changed after that, and BTC now stands well below $60,000.
As such, bitcoin has to increase its USD value by 65% to reach $98,000 from its current price level. Keeping in mind that there’s less than a week left until November ends, PlanB admitted that this task could be too tall even for the primary cryptocurrency.
However, the analyst outlined that the stock-to-flow model is “not affected” and in fact is on its way toward $100,000.
Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 25, 2021